Frozen edition · published Oct 10, 2026
State of the Car Shipping Market, Q4 2026
Where 24 common U.S. routes stand in October 2026: the fuel adjustment, estimate ranges by route, what enclosed transport adds and how direction moves the numbers. All figures are estimates from a published formula, not quotes.
The market at a glance
Fuel adjustment
+6.4%
EIA diesel $6.199/gal for the week of Oct 5, 2026, +31.1% against its 52-week average of $4.730. Q3 2026 inputs gave +1.6%.
Enclosed vs open (sedan)
+50.2%
Average difference between the enclosed and open range mid-points across 24 routes (+49.3% to +51.6%).
Direction factor, October
+15% / -5%
Southbound / northbound season factor the formula applies this month.
Estimate, not a quote. Every figure on this page is a formula-based estimate.
Direction pressure
| Direction | Routes | October season factor | Avg. sedan open change vs Q3 2026 inputs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Southbound | 13 | +15% | +11.6% |
| Northbound | 6 | -5% | -7.8% |
| Mostly east-west | 5 | +5% | +1.6% |
Direction is set by latitude: more than the threshold in the published method between the two ZIP codes. Some long east-west routes that also run south are counted as southbound. Change columns compare the same formula run on Q3 2026 inputs.
Q4 2026 estimate ranges by route
| Route | Direction | Road miles | Open, estimate range | Enclosed, estimate range | Enclosed vs open |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New York, NY → Miami, FL | southbound | 1,285 | $1,070 – $1,680 | $1,610 – $2,520 | +49.3% |
| Boston, MA → Miami, FL | southbound | 1,494 | $1,140 – $1,790 | $1,710 – $2,680 | +49.7% |
| Chicago, IL → Miami, FL | southbound | 1,348 | $1,090 – $1,710 | $1,640 – $2,570 | +50.0% |
| Detroit, MI → Miami, FL | southbound | 1,365 | $1,100 – $1,720 | $1,650 – $2,580 | +50.4% |
| Minneapolis, MN → Phoenix, AZ | southbound | 1,689 | $1,210 – $1,890 | $1,810 – $2,830 | +49.7% |
| Seattle, WA → Phoenix, AZ | southbound | 1,389 | $1,110 – $1,730 | $1,660 – $2,600 | +50.0% |
| Denver, CO → Phoenix, AZ | southbound | 822 | $880 – $1,380 | $1,330 – $2,080 | +50.4% |
| Miami, FL → New York, NY | northbound | 1,285 | $970 – $1,310 | $1,450 – $1,960 | +50.0% |
| Tampa, FL → New York, NY | northbound | 1,137 | $920 – $1,250 | $1,380 – $1,870 | +50.9% |
| Orlando, FL → New York, NY | northbound | 1,081 | $910 – $1,220 | $1,360 – $1,840 | +50.9% |
| New York, NY → Los Angeles, CA | southbound | 2,801 | $1,540 – $2,410 | $2,310 – $3,620 | +49.5% |
| Los Angeles, CA → New York, NY | northbound | 2,801 | $1,390 – $1,880 | $2,080 – $2,820 | +50.3% |
| San Francisco, CA → New York, NY | neutral | 2,914 | $1,570 – $2,120 | $2,350 – $3,180 | +50.0% |
| Chicago, IL → Los Angeles, CA | southbound | 2,022 | $1,320 – $2,060 | $1,980 – $3,090 | +50.3% |
| Seattle, WA → New York, NY | southbound | 2,866 | $1,560 – $2,440 | $2,340 – $3,660 | +50.0% |
| Dallas, TX → Los Angeles, CA | neutral | 1,445 | $1,120 – $1,520 | $1,680 – $2,280 | +50.0% |
| Chicago, IL → Houston, TX | southbound | 1,094 | $1,010 – $1,580 | $1,510 – $2,370 | +50.4% |
| Atlanta, GA → New York, NY | northbound | 884 | $830 – $1,120 | $1,240 – $1,680 | +50.5% |
| Phoenix, AZ → Dallas, TX | neutral | 1,081 | $1,000 – $1,350 | $1,500 – $2,030 | +50.0% |
| Las Vegas, NV → Los Angeles, CA | neutral | 276 | $480 – $750 | $720 – $1,120 | +50.8% |
| Las Vegas, NV → Phoenix, AZ | neutral | 287 | $490 – $760 | $730 – $1,140 | +51.6% |
| Las Vegas, NV → Denver, CO | northbound | 751 | $760 – $1,030 | $1,140 – $1,550 | +50.0% |
| Portland, OR → Los Angeles, CA | southbound | 962 | $960 – $1,500 | $1,440 – $2,250 | +49.6% |
| Portland, OR → Denver, CO | southbound | 1,243 | $1,060 – $1,660 | $1,590 – $2,490 | +50.0% |
Every range is an estimate, not a quote. The vehicle-class columns, transit times and $/mile are in the full Index.
Formula v2026.09.2 · EIA U.S. diesel $6.20/gal, week of Oct 5, 2026, 52-week average $4.73 · October pricing · road miles from OpenStreetMap routing where cached, otherwise straight-line distance ×1.2.
Estimate, not a quote. Produced automatically by our published formula from public data; your price comes from the licensed auto transport partner you choose. How we estimate · Get your free estimate
Fuel: U.S. Energy Information Administration. Routing: © OpenStreetMap contributors (OSRM). ZIP locations: U.S. Census Bureau.
Questions about this estimate? Call (800) 930-7417
Cite this page
Free to cite. Please use this wording and link to the Index:
American Auto Shipping, Car Shipping Cost Estimate Index, Q4 2026, https://americanautoshipping.com/car-shipping-cost-index/
Inputs: EIA U.S. No. 2 diesel retail, week of Oct 5, 2026 ($6.199/gal; 52-week average $4.730), road miles from OpenStreetMap, parameters v2026.09.2. Method: How We Estimate.
Questions about this page
A read-only summary of the Q4 2026 Car Shipping Cost Estimate Index. Every figure is computed from the frozen edition inputs by the same published formula used across American Auto Shipping. Nothing here is a quote or a price paid.
The formula applies a season and direction factor by month. In October it is +15% for southbound routes and -5% for northbound ones. Direction is set by the change in latitude between the two ZIP codes.
No. They are formula-based estimate ranges, not quotes. Offers come from licensed auto transport companies and vary with dates, exact addresses and capacity; the price is set between you and the company you choose.
No. The Q4 2026 edition is frozen at the EIA diesel survey week of Oct 5, 2026, so the numbers can be cited. The next edition is published as a new quarter begins.
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